Nate Silver forecasts that tonight’s big one is too close to call, but Romney just about has the best chance of winning.
Cassidy bucks the trend and predicts a Santorum snatch. His reasoning:
In several of the previous primaries, the polls have underestimated Santorum’s strength. It happened in Iowa. And it happened again in Colorado and Minnesota. Michigan is bigger and more urban than any of those states, which might suggest caution in making direct comparisons—the polls in Florida didn’t underestimate Santorum’s support—but I still think it might be worth a point or two in Santorum’s favor.
Michigan is an open primary, where anybody can register as a Republican for the day and vote. It’s also a strong union state. I can imagine many union members wanting to vote against Romney both for personal reasons (his job-slashing tactics at Bain Capital and his opposition to the auto bailout) and to saddle the Republicans with an unelectable candidate: Santorum.
Kornacki also looks at what’s going wrong for Mitt.